Tied 1-1: Can the Pacers Really Shock the Thunder?

The Oklahoman

Under normal circumstances, the Indiana Pacers would be thrilled to split two games on the road against a team of the Oklahoma City Thunder's caliber. But nothing about this series screams 'normal'.

Let’s Recap:

Game One of the 2025 NBA Finals ended just about as well for Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers could have prayed for.

The Oshkosh, Wisconsin native sunk yet another go-ahead winner (his fourth) of these playoffs to stun the Thunder on their home court — and stun even the few road supporters in the building.

On opening night of The Finals, the Pacers needed every bit of scoring from their rounded starting lineup and bench contributors en route to a comeback victory that saw them down nine points headed into the fourth quarter. And while forwards Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin steadied an unpredictable scoring punch, Haliburton’s finishing touches are what just about anyone will remember (despite a rather quiet 14 total points).

Game Two in Oklahoma City left minimal room to doubt the Thunder’s clear talent advantage. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had yet another 30-plus point, high-volume (and free-throw) performance that set the offensive tempo — one that left Indiana decimated in the first three quarters. Gilgeous-Alexander’s four steals were just the icing on the cake.

On the other side, Haliburton seemed unable to touch the paint when the Pacers needed it the most. The guard finished with 17 total points, but 12 came in the fourth when the benchwarmers were all but walking to the scorer’s table.

On another night where all five Indiana starters contributed with double-digit scoring, the effort seemed minimal in comparison to the firepower from Oklahoma City’s top threats. As Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren found rhythm on both ends for the Thunder, followed by timely contributions from Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins, the talent gap just appeared to grow wider and wider as time elapsed.

So where does Indiana stand heading home in a tied series?

The Pacers should be thrilled, right? To head back to Indiana with an even score, and home court awaiting them for two nights. Except….not really.

Momentum plays just as big a role as Haliburton or Gilgeous-Alexander do in determining the series’ outcome. The Thunder just set the tone for a level of play that only they have reached this season.

As for the star guards — consider a world outside of Haliburton’s final-shot heroics. It’s becoming clear that one can be counted on to carry the scoring load; the other one doesn’t always bring that same drive.

It’s reasonable to expect Indiana’s wings to do a much better job at containing Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact on the floor. Bennedict Mathurin looked two steps behind on every one of SGA’s step-backs and paint attacks, but Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard are still poised to continue that as primary responsibilities.

We can also infer that Indiana’s engines Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam know the responsibility falls on them to produce offensively. But — the Thunder have the luxury of sticking Luguentz Dort, or Cason Wallace, or Aaron Wiggins on anyone under seven-feet tall, and having that player effectively neutralized. And when one subs out, in checks Alex Caruso.

Need I even say more?

The three-headed (and co.) monster of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren seem a much safer bet to score, defend, and break the defensive spells. Even heading into Indiana, all indications lean towards the Thunder holding the cards.

How can Indiana Right the Ship?

Outside of his vision and willingness to push the pace, Haliburton’s best asset is his ability to stretch the floor. By forcing Dort (or any other guard) to close out 25-plus feet from the hoop, Indiana has a clear chance to either make the extra pass or crash the offensive glass. But the Thunder are much too disciplined to give up unnecessary possessions without Haliburton actually being a threat from deep. He has to be trigger-happy early. And quick.

Indiana is also one of the few teams that can match Oklahoma City’s toughness and extra effort. The Thunder benefited greatly from a number of second-chance opportunities (created by guards) that led to kick-out threes. If there’s any bucket that hurts the most when losing, it’s the ones that elapse an entire shot clock and then some, only for it to still end in three points. Indiana has their own cast that fights for loose balls — Nesmith and McConnell are among the league’s best at overcoming a size disparity — but it has to swing their way.

Updated Series Prediction: OKC beats IND in 6 games.

I initially believed this would be a seven-game series; but Game Two was much more telling of the Thunder’s ability to suck the life out of an opponent.

These are two supremely talented teams on both the offensive and defensive ends.

Except one team is supremely talented on an all-time, HISTORIC level.