2025 NBA Finals Preview: Immovable Force Meets its "Constantly in Motion" Match

Most people expected Oklahoma City Thunder to represent the Western Conference. But that might just be the Indiana Pacers' greatest advantage heading into Game One

Game One of the 2025 NBA Finals is set for 8:30 EST on Thursday, June 5. The Thunder enter the series as heavy favorites for both the opening match and the series result. However, to truly predict the outcome, one must revisit just what makes this matchup so fascinating. Predictions are below, as well.

The Rise of Indiana Basketball

It’s taken just about a full calendar year for the NBA fandom to recognize the Indiana Pacers as a legitimate playoff riser. Despite losing in four games last year (albeit in the most competitive sweep in basketball history) to eventual champion Boston Celtics, the Pacers ‘overachieved’ as representatives in the Eastern Conference Finals. Yet, it just so happens that they did it again.

Indiana disposed of the Bucks (in 5), top-seeded Cavaliers (in 5), and juggernaut Knicks (in 6) en route to a Finals matchup with the Thunder, with former champion Pascal Siakam earning the ECF MVP honor. His running mate, Tyrese Haliburton, certainly had a case for the nod solely for his Game 4 triple-double (a LOUD 32-12-15) alone. The bottom line is: when one has the ball, the other is most likely breaking for the other end of the court.

The 2023-24 Pacers set the mark for the third-highest offensive rating in NBA regular season history, exceeding the 120 mark. One year later, the 2024-25 squad finished with just the seventh-best for the year, at a mere 117.4 ppg. Did their endless streams of fast-break opportunities turn into less efficient half-court sets? Not exactly. It’s more telling to note that starters Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard missed a combined 54 games; when both returned, the Pacers finished the year on the second-highest winning percentage amidst the run.

When the Pacers' engine revs up, they can match up to the bigger, better, and stronger. Yes, I said their engine, and I don’t just mean elite orchestrator Tyrese Haliburton. Instead, I mean the Haliburton - Nembhard - Nesmith - Siakam (alongside rim protector Myles Turner) pipeline that creates a nightmare of opportunity, sporadic bursts of extra energy, and multifaceted intensity for any opponent. This Pacers offense isn’t any slower than last year, nor have they found any team or player willing to slow them down.

The Fear of Matching Up Against Oklahoma City

The Thunder still rank among the association’s overall youngest teams (Houston’s kids lead the way). But winning 68 games in the regular season puts you in contention to also lead nearly every notable statistic (3rd in total assists, 2nd lowest total turnovers, T-2nd in total FG%, etc.). The one most people choose to hone in on is defensive ratings…and rightfully so.

Not one team finished within 2.0 points of Oklahoma City’s league-leading 106.6 defensive rating in the regular season. The Orlando Magic stand tall at number two, but more games in a lopsided Eastern Conference and the sheer defensive personnel advantage for the Thunder really seem to widen the gap further.

Ready for the crazy part? For the playoffs, their defensive rating drops to 104.7 points. It’s not hard to see why. Having lanky center Chet Holmgren available every game (Holmgren played just 32 in the regular season) for their double big tandem, as well as a massive minutes and responsibility increase for perennial terrifier of guards Alex Caruso, means teams rarely get an open or balanced look from three or the paint. Throw in Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, and you have arguably the biggest abundance of pesky three-and-D support staff since the days when fighting was somewhat encouraged.

In some ways, MVP winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the motor. In other ways, he’s content to control the offense only when it figures to be in dire need. Against both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets, the Thunder offense was steadied for entire halves by secondary stars Jalen Williams and Holmgren. It’s this luxury on both sides of the ball that make it hard to not call this one a sweep in the making and start writing for next year.

But Indiana might just be the toughest offense to truly keep up with.

Series Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder win in 7. The Pacers are ridiculously good. And (now) well rested. If the road dogs are able to replicate the previous series’ outcomes and win one or two on the road, there’s no reason this one won’t go the distance.

Best (Predicted) Matchup: Myles Turner vs. Chet Holmgren. It may be easier to say the likely Nesmith guarding Gilgeous-Alexander matchup, or Dort chasing Haliburton. And truth be told, there’s a likelihood that Turner and Holmgren won’t be the primary matchup. But in their bout against the Knicks, Turner neutralized the driving ability of Karl-Anthony Towns to some points where he looked more effective as a screen setter than as a scorer. Turner will have to start on Holmgren or Hartenstein, but my guess is Holmgren, based on the seven-footer’s ability to score at all three levels and Turner’s surprising lateral quickness and shot-blocking ability.